Process for Developing the Lunar Community Economic Model

1. Pick a segment of the Lunar economy (e.g., 2.4.) from the list below.
   • 1. Lunar Tourism and Residence
     • 1.1. Lunar Tourism
     • 1.2. Residence on moon
   • 2. Lunar Resource Extraction, Raw Material Exporting
     • 2.1. Lunar Glass and Ceramics
     • 2.2. Lunar Metals
     • 2.3. Lunar Oxygen
     • 2.4. Lunar Volatiles
     • 2.5. Other Lunar Non-Metals
     • 2.6. Bulk Lunar Regolith
   • 3. Manufacturing, Exporting
     • 3.1. Parts/Machinery Manufacturing
     • 3.2. Orbital Space Habitats Construction
     • 3.3. Photovoltaic Manufacturing
     • 3.4. Other Manufacturing
     • 3.5. Vacuum Industries
     • 3.6. 1/6 g Industries
   • 4. Support Industries
     • 4.1. Entertainment on Luna
     • 4.2. Life Support
     • 4.3. Recycling of Refuse
     • 4.4. Service Industries
     • 4.5. Other Support Industries
   • 5. Power Industries
     • 5.1. Solar Power Generation
     • 5.2. Nuclear Power
     • 5.3. Other Power Sources
     • 5.4. Power Export by Beaming
     • 5.5. Power Storage
   • 6. Support for Planetary Missions
   • 7. Science as a Lunar Industry
     • 7.1. Lunar Observatory
     • 7.2. Lunar Planetary Science
     • 7.3. Lunar Resource Development Research
     • 7.4. Low-Gravity Research
     • 7.5. Vacuum Research
     • 7.6. Other Platform Science
2. Decompose the topic into its components.
3. Send the breakdown to the chairmen (MB & Sean Palmer) for review. The breakdown is then posted on the ASI web, so others can use it.
4. Develop costs, revenues, resource requirements, and transfer equations for each part of the economic process. Use Fortran 77 conventions for writing the transfer equations; that's the easiest thing to read and to translate into other languages.
5. Review the breakdowns others have created to see what names they are using for the variables in their transfer equations.

   Note: Be careful here, and be clever in naming your variables. For instance, somebody might be using 'oxygen-quantity' to mean the amount of oxygen used in a detailed industrial process. That's a bad move, because someone else might use 'oxygen-quantity' to mean the amount of oxygen needed for people to breathe per day. It's better to use a variable name like 'oxygen-ls-rate-lb-pppd'.

   Nomenclature: "ls" is life support. "lb-pppd" is short-hand for "pounds per person per day". We use "rate" because this is a flow rate through the system, not a static quantity (use "quan").

   For dollars, use "d" rather than "$" since the dollar sign will make most compilers choke. Calculate all money transactions in constant-year 1994 U.S. dollars.

   We'll agree on other standard nomenclature and variable-naming conventions as we build up the model. Keep an eye on the 'Standard Variable Names Dictionary', which the APTC chairmen will maintain on the ASI web.

   Use a standard time interval of one day where you can. We could write a simulation control executive which can handle slower or faster iteration intervals, but it will increase the complexity of the task. If the model depends upon an event, such as arrival of a commercial space liner, make sure that's obvious.

6. Send a list of the variable names you're using, with definitions, to the committee chairmen so they can add it to the Standard Variable Names Dictionary posted on the ASI web.
7. Put the transfer equations together to form an economic model for this segment of the lunar economy.

   If it's really complex, consider developing a simplified model in parallel with the detailed one to speed up processing time. For example, to figure out the economic viability of the tourist transportation industry, we'll need a detailed model of the ship's operation. However, for a whole-moon economic model, we only need a summary model telling us where the money goes and what resources are required from the moon. You might find it easier to estimate the summary model first, and then refine it by working the details.

8. The chairmen or someone else interested (and brave) will assemble all the models into one big model for the Lunar Community's economy.
9. We load all this into a computer and watch it crash. Once it's all debugged, we have a tool for predicting the economic future of the Lunar Community, and demonstration that the long-range prospect of the Artemis Project is economically viable.